Evaluation of ecological consequences on the global distribution of Staphylococcus aureus Rosenbach 1884 due to climate change, using Maxent modeling

Abstract

Staphylococcus aureus is a primary cause of many infections in humans, and its rising prevalence and drug resistance are serious public health concerns. While there is evidence that climate change can influence the distribution and abundance of microbial species, the precise effects on S. aureus are not well characterized. The purpose of this study is to predict the potential influence of climate change on the global distribution of Staphylococcus aureus in 2050 and 2070 using GIS and Maxent modeling. S. aureus occurrence data was acquired from global databases and coupled with bioclimatic variables to simulate current and future habitat suitability under several climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The Maxent modeling approach was used to forecast geographical patterns of S. aureus distribution, providing insights into locations that may see increased prevalence of this essential species as a result of climate change. The study’s findings can be used to inform public health measures and focused surveillance activities aimed at reducing the burden of Staphylococcus aureus infection.