The twin deficit hypothesis in Egypt

dc.AffiliationOctober University for modern sciences and Arts (MSA)
dc.contributor.authorHelmy H.E.
dc.contributor.otherDepartment of Economics
dc.contributor.otherFaculty of Management Sciences
dc.contributor.otherOctober University for Modern Sciences and Arts (MSA)
dc.contributor.other6th of October City
dc.contributor.otherEgypt
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-09T20:40:57Z
dc.date.available2020-01-09T20:40:57Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.descriptionScopus
dc.description.abstractWe employ a new approach to the twin deficit hypothesis aimed at enhancing policy making in Egypt. In contrast to the conventional twin deficit hypothesis between the current account, which comprises many items out of governments� scope of maneuvering, and the budget deficit, we track the causal link between Egypt's merchandise trade deficit and the budget deficit. We begin first by examining the conventional twin deficit hypothesis using a VAR model, which implies short run reverse causation running from the current account deficit to the budget deficit. Second, as cointegration exists between the budget deficit and the merchandise trade deficit, we run a multivariate VECM model which refutes the twin deficit hypothesis in favor of the current account targeting hypothesis. In policy terms, ameliorating Egypt's trade balance would ultimately improve its fiscal balance as well. � 2018 The Society for Policy Modelingen_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.scimagojr.com/journalsearch.php?q=20320&tip=sid&clean=0
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.01.009
dc.identifier.doiPubMed ID :
dc.identifier.issn1618938
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.01.009
dc.identifier.otherPubMed ID :
dc.identifier.urihttps://t.ly/RKYxq
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJournal of Policy Modeling
dc.relation.ispartofseries40
dc.subjectOctober University for Modern Sciences and Arts
dc.subjectUniversity for Modern Sciences and Arts
dc.subjectMSA University
dc.subjectجامعة أكتوبر للعلوم الحديثة والآداب
dc.subjectCointegrationen_US
dc.subjectEgypten_US
dc.subjectTwin deficitsen_US
dc.subjectVector Autoregression (VAR)en_US
dc.subjectVector Error Correction (VECM)en_US
dc.titleThe twin deficit hypothesis in Egypten_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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