Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure
Date
2019
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Type
Other
Publisher
Copyright © 2019 MSA University. All Rights Reserved.
Series Info
MANAGEMENT DISTINGUISHED PROJECTS 2019;
Doi
Scientific Journal Rankings
Abstract
In light of recent events that have taken place, the importance of knowing the financial position of banks is imperative to stakeholders. There is a major dearth of literature that examines the applicability of Altman’s Z-score model to forecasting banking failures. The focus of this study is to confirm the validity of Altman’s Z-score model as a predictor of failures. This requires two data sets: failed and non-failed banks. Four distressed banks were benchmarked to four comparable control banks. Ratio analysis was carried out on the failed company’s financial statements for three years prior to their bankruptcy or nationalization as the Z-score model has predictive power of up to three years pre-bankruptcy. The empirical findings verified the predictive ability of the Z-score model to the company’s area.
Description
Keywords
October University for Modern Sciences and Arts, University of Modern Sciences and Arts, MSA University, جامعة أكتوبر للعلوم الحديثة والآداب, Financial Ratios
Citation
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The journal of finance, 23(4), 589-609. Achim, M. V., Borlea, S. N., & Găban, L. V. (2016). Failure prediction from the investors’ view by using financial ratios. Lesson from Romania. Economics and Management. Altman, E. I., & Hotchkiss, E. (2006). Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyse and Invest in Distress Debt (3rd ed.). John Wiley and Sons. Achim, M. V., Borlea, S. N., & Găban, L. V. (2016). Failure prediction from the investors’ view by using financial ratios. Lesson from Romania. Economics and Management. Agraval, V., & Taffl er, R. J. (2007). Twentyfi ve years of the Taffl er z-score model: does it really have predictive ability? Accounting and Business Research, 37(4), 285-300. doi:10.10 80/00014788.2007.9663313. Boshkoska, M., & Prisagjanec, M. (2017). Business Success and Failure Prediction Software-BEX Model. Ecoforum Journal, 6(1). Bjornstad, D. J., & Brown, M. A. (2004). A market failures framework for defining the government’s role in energy efficiency. Joint Institute for Energy and Environment. Report Number: JIEE, 2. Bellovary, J. L., Giacomino, D. E., & Akers, M. D. (2007). A review of bankruptcy prediction studies: 1930 to present. Journal of Financial education, 1- 42. Dimitras, A. I., Slowinski, R., Susmaga, R., & Zopounidis, C. (1999). Business failure prediction using rough sets. European Journal of Operational Research, 114(2), 263-280. De George, R. T. (1987). The status of business ethics: past and future. Journal of Business ethics, 6(3), 201-211. Dresti, M., Hayes, P. H., Campbell, R., Huang, S. L., Wang, W. W., Yuh, H. S., & Scott, W. (2010). U.S. Patent No. 7,831,930. Washington, DC: U.S. Patent and ademark Ofice. 38 Justino, M. V., & Tengeh, R. (2016). Role of external environmental factors in the failure of small enterprises in Angola. Justino, M. V., & Tengeh, R. (2016). Role of external environmental factors in the failure of small enterprises in Angola. Kumar, P. R., & Ravi, V. (2007). Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques–A review. European journal of operational research, 180(1), 1-28. Macedonia, M. B., & Prisagjanec, M. (2017). Business Success and Failure Prediction Software-BEX Model. EcoForum, 6(1). Maricica, M., & Georgeta, V. (2012). Business failure risk analysis using financial ratios. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62, 728-732. Tilden, C. and Janes, T. (2012) ‘Empirical evidence of financial statement manipulation during economic recessions’. Journal of Finance and Accountancy, 10: pp. 1-15. Zeytinoglu, E., & Akarim, Y. D. (2013). Financial failure prediction using financial ratios: An empirical application on Istanbul Stock Exchange. Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 3(3), 107.