Abstract:
This paper discusses a new representation for the efciency frontier method through
a proposed algorithm for augmented feed forward back propagation neural network
models, in order to estimate the economic performance, and the efectiveness of
macroeconomic policies in Egyptian economy, by using a quarter time series data
from 1990Q1 to 2019Q2. In this study I developed artifcial neural network mod-
els—ANN—corresponding with the conditions of the Egyptian economy, by build-
ing an optimal efciency frontier and then comparing the actual performance of the
Egyptian economy with that limit, which includes the lowest possible variations for
both infation and output. As for the new contribution of this study, it is designated
to calculate the optimal infation rate and the optimal output level in the Egyptian
economy through a model, which combines the higher predictive power of feed for-
ward neural network models and the high explanatory power of a stationary or ran-
dom walk stochastic models, in order to obtain the ftted values of the optimal out-
put level, in addition to the optimal infation rate. It is clear from the results of the
study, the extent of the essential congruence between the actual Egyptian economic
performance during the study period and the economic performance index that was
built via the new contribution of this study.
